Before we get to my Week 8 picks, let’s catch up on the college football season at roughly the midway point and look ahead to the second half. Ten things you need to know about the final season before an expanded, 24-team playoff likely kicks in next year:
1. College Football Playoff rankings: The committee’s initial rankings will be unveiled Tuesday, Nov. 3, meaning familiar refrains such as “ESPN is killing the sport,” “the SEC and Big Ten are megalomaniacal terrorists” and “Oh, please, Notre Dame hasn’t beaten anybody” are right around the corner.
2. All the unbeatens: Wait, did somebody say “all”? Last year at this point, there were 10 of them. This time, we’re at only five after Georgia, Notre Dame and Indiana all got dinged in Week 7 and James Madison went down on Thursday. Miami, BYU, Texas Tech, Utah and UCLA still haven’t lost.
3. Irish stew: After being left out of the 12-team playoff last year at 10-2, Notre Dame is back in the thick of trouble, needing to finish 5-0 to avoid high drama and a potential recurrence of outrage on selection day. A Nov. 7 date with Miami in South Bend will come with massive pressure on Marcus Freeman’s team.
4. Big Tension: A year ago this week in the Top 25, unbeaten Ohio State was ranked No. 1, unbeaten Indiana was No. 2 and one-loss Oregon was No. 6. Now, one-loss OSU is at 3, one-loss Indiana at 6 and perfect UCLA at 9. Producing another national champion — what would be a fourth straight for the conference — is going to take some seriously heavy lifting.
5. North by Northwestern: At 5-1 and with a sparkling new stadium, the Wildcats are having a moment. With games to go at Oregon, against Iowa and at Ohio State, though, among other losable ones, the rest of the season might be pretty rough. Meanwhile, the school is already offering discounted tickets to faculty and staff just to try to fill the 35,000-seat joint.
6. I-L-L … spells “ill”: After 19 wins over the last two seasons, Illinois is 3-3 and likely will be the underdog in at least four of its remaining games. A bowl? Maybe, maybe not. Basketball season? It can’t ever start soon enough.
7. The coaching carousel: Maryland fired Mike Locksley this week, making him the first coach to get the ax — six fewer than had been jettisoned by this time last season. On hot seats from here are, among many others, Rutgers’ Greg Schiano, Florida State’s Mike Norvell, Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell, USC’s Lincoln Riley and possibly Colorado’s Deion Sanders.
8. First-half Heisman: My all-important vote for this nonexistent award goes to Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. Already with 52 catches for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns, the best player in the country is the clear frontrunner.
9. End-of-season Heisman: It’s a quarterback award, after all, isn’t it? That gives No. 1-ranked Miami’s QB, Darian Mensah, who has 18 TD passes and only one interception and owns the best passer rating in the land, a real shot. In one order or the other, Smith and Mensah will be the top two.
10. Games of the second half: Miami at Notre Dame (Week 10), BYU at Utah (Week 10), Georgia at Ole Miss (Week 10), Texas at LSU (Week 11), Michigan at Ohio State (Week 13), USC at UCLA (Week 13).
All games are Saturday.
No. 24 Northwestern (-15½) vs. Rutgers (11 a.m., Peacock, 720-AM): I’m no expert in stadium promotions, but maybe Northwestern should let the first 10,000 fans get into the game and make a handoff against the Scarlet Knights, owners of the second-worst rushing defense among all Power 4 teams. Wildcats, 38-24.
No. 6 Indiana (-7½) at Michigan (11 a.m., Fox 32): Imagine giving an eight-figure NIL deal to a quarterback and then having to bench him in his second season because he just seems to make the offense worse. That seems to be where the Wolverines are at with Bryce Underwood. What a tough ask of freshman Tommy Carr — brother of former Notre Dame QB CJ and grandson of U-M icon Lloyd Carr — if he gets the start against a defense as salty as Indiana’s. Hoosiers, 21-13.
No. 15 Iowa (-7½) at Minnesota (2:30 p.m., FS1): The Gophers have a huge Iowa problem, having lost 10 of the last 11 and 20 of the last 25 against the Hawkeyes, including blowouts each of the last two seasons. Just paint Floyd of Rosedale black and gold already and get it over with. Hawkeyes, 27-20.
My favorite favorite: No. 19 Texas (-3½) vs. No. 7 Ole Miss (6:30 p.m., ABC 7): As good as he is, Longhorns QB Arch Manning just can’t stop making mistakes. Speaking of the Heisman, Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss could put himself right in the race with one of his A-Game performances and an upset. The better defense wears burnt orange, though, and it’s not close.
My favorite underdog: Illinois (+9½) vs. Oregon (2 p.m., BTN, 890-AM): If the Ducks who went to USC and won by 14 show up to Memorial Stadium, I’ll be wrong. Overall, though, they haven’t been this un-scary since the Mario Cristobal years. Run the ball? They haven’t been able to do it. Stop the pass? Same. The Illini have a legit upset shot — take the points.
Last week: 4-3 straight-up, 6-1 against the spread.
Season to date: 37-14 straight-up, 28-23 against the spread.
